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R&D — 9086 Envisioning the Global Environment in 2025 Alexandra Brady Elnick Julie A. Blair Jerry D. Rogers Charalet J. Dunnigan
Intended Audience: For Publication on the Greening of Industry Network website. . One of the challenges facing decision-makers today is to anticipate and respond to new pressures in the changing global environment and the emerging needs of society. Identifying potential future pressures can be a valuable way for business, government, industry, academia, and other organizations to prepare for a sustainable future. For that reason, General Motors began a multi-year cooperative envisioning project with the Greening of Industry Network (GIN) in 1998 to develop a shared understanding of the forces of global environment change in 2025. The first phase of this envisioning project was a survey that identified 36 forces of environmental change themes. A second survey was conducted to interpret the relative importance of these 36 themes and the attention given to them on a country-by-country basis. In addition, initiatives that GIN should undertake to assist in addressing each of the themes were solicited. The surveys were sent to environmental thought leaders from all regions of the world. Twelve themes covering a wide variety of areas (i.e., mobility, business cooperation, human settlement, etc.) were rated as of major-to-critical importance to respondents' countries. Three of these top 12 importance themes dealt with mobility issues: vehicle performance, alternative transportation, and increasing mobility. Variations in importance ratings were found between developed and less developed countries as well as among the global regions. Theme differences were also noted among the four affiliations of the environmental leaders: academia, government, industry, and non-government organizations. Initiatives suggested for GIN to pursue that will address these forces of environmental change were grouped into similar areas. Most of these suggestions complied with GIN's mission to stimulate, coordinate, and promote research consistent with building a sustainable future. Other initiative areas included promoting improvements in environmental education and individual awareness, professional networks, information access, and the like. The perceptions and opinions from the survey respondents are extremely valuable because they reflect future environmental issues and drivers as seen through the eyes of key thought leaders around the world. The results of these two surveys may not accurately predict future environment issues, but they do serve to frame the debate and identify major environmental drivers at this point in time. The findings endorse the need to continue with planning for the second decade of the Greening of Industry Network. Two surveys were conducted as part of the cooperative "Envisioning the Global Environment in 2025" project with the Green of Industry Network (GIN) to provide information about the importance of and the attention given to 36 forces of environmental change themes. The project provides insights from academics, government officials, industrial and business leaders, and non-governmental organizational members into global and regional environmental issues and trends. Twelve themes stood as being seen as having major importance to respondents' countries:
The importance and attention given to the forces of environmental change varied by region of the world. Most diversity of opinion involved themes of shifts to alternative forms of transportation and the environmental degradation associated with increasing mobility. Yet, being mobile is viewed as essential. Responses from the various global regions also varied on the importance given to themes concerning business cooperation to improve environmental performance. Thought leaders representing academia, industry/business, government, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) all view the need for global environmental collaboration and the changing of business philosophies as themes of major-to-critical importance to promote a sustainable future. Only government respondents rated New Health Risks and the Emerging WorldView as highly important themes. This is likely because government agencies are more often responsible for determining health-based standards for new chemicals and regulating materials. In addition, industrial affiliates alone rated the theme of growing consumer interest in environmental products and processes as very important for a sustainable future. This may indicate that business sees an increasing demand for more environmentally responsible products in their marketing research. The initiatives suggested by respondents for the Greening of Industry (GIN) to undertake were consistent with GIN's mission to stimulate, coordinate, and promote research that conform to building a sustainable future. The information that was gathered in this project reflects the importance that thought leaders from difference global regions attach to various forces of global environmental change. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Differences Between Fully and Less Developed Countries
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
One of the challenges facing society today is to integrate environmental, social, and economic objectives under the sustainable development banner. Individual companies are being judged by their total environmental impact and progress toward sustainable development goals. Identifying future forces of environmental change can be a valuable tool for achieving sustainable development. The Greening of Industry Network is one group that is working to achieve these goals.
GIN is a research and policy network dedicated to building a sustainable future. The Network’s mission is to stimulate, coordinate and promote research of high quality, relevance, and usefulness ensuring that the activities of industry - including business, labor, consumers, government and others - are consistent with building a sustainable future. GIN comprises over 1500 individuals representing academia, business, public interest, labor, and government from more than 50 countries. Because of this global diversity, GIN is able to offer unique insights into upcoming needs for environmental research and public policy directions.
In 1998, GIN began an important multi-year collaborative project in cooperation with General Motors to develop a shared understanding of the future global environment. The project is called "Envisioning the Global Environment in 2025." GIN and GM sponsored this project to better understand the evolution of environmental issues over the next 30 years and to see how GIN can contribute even more to achieving a positive future global environment. The process consisted of two surveys (1 and 2) to identify and elucidate these environmental forces. Survey 1 was used to identify the major environmental themes over the next 30 years, and Survey 2 built on the results of Survey 1 by examining the importance of each theme.
Survey 1 Survey 1 was distributed in June 1998 over the Internet to GIN members and other environmental thought leaders. The survey asked respondents to list the forces of change that will positively or negatively impact the global environment by the year 2025. Typically, forces of change may be found in society, technology, energy, regulation, economics, business, and other areas. Examples of forces of change identified in other research studies included changes in fresh water supplies or air quality, changes in standards of living or economic polarization of society, and changes in world or country population profiles. We also asked respondents why they selected the particular forces of change and to project their potential impact on the environment. From the responses to Survey 1, we identified 36 forces of change themes that might impact the future environment. The 36 themes were grouped into 17 major theme categories. These interim project results were presented at the Greening of Industry Network 7th International Conference, November 15-18, 1998, in Rome Italy, as part of a plenary session titled "Research Agenda for the 21st Century." Following Survey 1 and as part of our continuing analysis, the theme categories were refined and reduced to 10. Table 1 lists each of the 36 themes and the categories to which they were assigned. (A more complete listing by category and theme along with a description of each theme may be found in the Appendix).
Survey 2 was distributed to GIN members in October 1998. Survey 2 built on the results of Survey 1 with the goal of furthering an understanding of the views of countries on environmental issues. This survey was aimed at interpreting the importance of the 36 forces of environmental change themes on a country-by-country basis. For each country, we developed a customized survey form containing the 36 themes, a synopsis of each theme representing the collective perception of responses received from all countries, and the text of the Survey 1 responses from that country for each theme. In Survey 2, we asked respondents to add comments to each theme, indicate the importance of the theme to their country, and indicate how much attention is being given to the theme in their country today. In addition, Survey 2 asked respondents to indicate if GIN should undertake initiatives around particular themes and to suggest examples of specific initiatives that would be valued by the respondents’ country. Finally, respondents were asked to identify any additional forces of change in their country that were not captured in the analysis of Survey 1. Individuals from thirty-two countries responded to Survey 2, and a graphic indicating those countries is shown in Figure 1. The respondents represented eight regions of the world: Western Europe (9 countries), Asia and the Pacific (7 countries), Eastern Europe and Central Asia (4 countries), Latin America and the Caribbean (3 countries), Northern Europe (3 countries), North America (2 countries), and sub-Saharan Africa (2 countries). In addition, these respondents reflect (1) developed countries, (2) less developed countries, and (3) developing countries. The largest portion of Survey 2 responses came from developed countries (72.2%) followed by less developed countries (24.5%) and developing countries (3%). Table 2 summaries demographic information about Survey 2 respondents. The responses to Survey 2 gave us a tremendous amount of data to process. First, we analyzed the distribution of importance and attention assigned to the 36 themes from Survey 1 by all respondents (see Figure 2). In this graph, the X-axis shows the relative importance of each theme on a scale of 1 (Does not pertain to my country) to 5 (A critical theme in my country). The Y-axis rates the attention given to each theme on a scale of 1 ((Not being addressed at all) to 5 (Being addressed very effectively). Responses indicated that all the themes were rated as needing more attention. Therefore, we focused on the importance ratings for each of the themes. The themes garnering an overall major importance rating are reviewed and comments from respondents are highlighted in the Results section of this report. Next, we examined rating differences in the importance of the 36 forces of environmental change for respondents from less developed countries. We compared them with those of respondents from fully developed countries. Table 2 contains for a listing of the countries in each classification. Discussions of the key themes are in the Results section. We also examined rating differences among the 12 key importance themes for the four professional affiliations: Academia, Industry, Government, and Non Government Organizations. In addition, we reviewed rating difference by the global regions.
The survey results were also analyzed in other ways to understand some of the viewpoints being expressed by the respondents. Several themes ranked as being the least important were useful in understanding some of the biases of the respondents. We also grouped into nine categories the initiatives suggested for the Greening of Industry Network to pursue. Finally, we analyzed the other forces of change that were identified by Survey 2 respondents.
Table 1. Forces of Environmental Change by Category
Table 2. GIN Survey 2 Respondent Demographics
Note:
Table 3. Classification of Countries by Developmental Category
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Survey 2 participants were asked to rate the 36 forces of environmental change themes identified in Survey 1 by the importance of the theme to their country and by the attention that the theme is given in their country. (See Figure 2.) For the entire sample, 12 of the 36 themes stand out as being seen as having major importance to respondents' countries (mean importance rating greater than 4.00; range 1 to 5) as well as not receiving enough attention. These 12 themes represent eight of the ten broad categories into which the forces of environmental change fall. (See Table 1.) For the entire group of survey respondents, the top 12 themes, grouped by category, are listed below: Mobility
Business Cooperation
Technology
Education/Awareness
Energy
Politics
Economics
Human Settlement
Improving Vehicle Environmental Performance Recent global public opinion polls (Environics, 1998, 1999) reveal that a majority of people around the world believe that automotive industry is a major contributor to environmental pollution. Therefore, it is not surprising to find that our survey respondents rate this as of major importance and needing more attention in their countries. Some commented that vehicle emissions are responsible for a substantial portion (20-25%) of the air pollution in their countries, especially in urban areas. Global warming was perceived as a real threat, and vehicles, urban planning, and low fossil fuel prices were mentioned as the key elements in the climate change crisis. Comments from respondents suggest that moving away from fossil fuels and developing on-board energy storage is critical to solving environmental pollution associated with transportation in their countries. One suggested that the automobile is the worst technology, from an environmental perspective, ever invented. Further, some believe that the automotive industry is not sensitive enough to deal with its impact. Although current changes will minimize emissions, they suggest that these improvements will not solve the environmental problems associated with traffic density and congestion. They believe that we need to change the mind set from "more efficient autos" to getting rid of them altogether. They feel that a major paradigm shift is needed which will restructure communities to reduce dependence on cars. Others, however, recognize that the automobile is still the most important means of individual transportation and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Therefore, improvements in emissions are essential for the environment. Even so, it is important only if cost-competitive improvements can be developed because consumers are not willing to pay more for these improvements. Shifts to Alternative Forms of Transportation Although respondents rate this theme as of major importance to their country, they report that it does not receive nearly enough attention. A majority of Survey 2 respondents commented that shifts to alternative forms of transportation are not occurring at all in their countries. If anything, they report the emphasis on private vehicles is increasing. Moreover, some said that public transportation has a decreasing share of the growing transportation sector in their country. The reason cited is that low fuel prices depress interest in alternative forms of transportation. For North America, the shift will take time because drivers do not want to give up the independence associated with a private vehicle. Individuals in the US and Canada reflect this sentiment. It was suggested that North Americans would use mass transit to commute and shop only if it is quick, convenient, and economical. On the other hand, Western Europeans said that the shift away from personal transportation towards mass transit is well underway. Bicycle use is booming in the European Union. Even so, the Western European view was in the minority. A few respondents mentioned that alternative forms of transportation are emerging mostly in large urban centers where the shift from private to public transit has the most beneficial impact. These individuals suggest that their countries have introduced a wide range of policy measures to promote this shift toward reliable, affordable, and convenient public transit. Even so, they admit this shift will be difficult to make. Increasing Interest in Mobility and the Resultant Increase in Environmental Degradation Most respondents acknowledged that mobility is increasing and that this is an issue of major importance in their country. Many acknowledged that there is an associated impact on the environment from increased mobility. Yet, some mentioned that being mobile is essential and that the impact is unclear. Still others pointed out that this mobility issue is a broad one that includes leisure activities such as vacation travel, pleasure boating, and other forms of recreation.
Increasing Use of Environmental Business Practices Most respondents commented that businesses were increasing the use of practices to become more efficient and environmentally friendly. ISO14000 was cited as one typical environmental management system that companies were implementing. Many respondents, however, felt the pace of adopting environmental business practices was modest and slow. Some noted that only economically viable "green" practices will survive. A few noted that more firms are publishing environmental reports. Many companies (mainly large-scale) are viewed as recognizing that environmentally sound business practices can offer a competitive advantage. Yet, some said that these practices were adopted not for the environment per se, but because of competitiveness and enhanced company image. Others said that that these environmental business practices are adopted to avoid stricter environmental policies that could be introduced by legislation. Changing Business Operating and Management Philosophies A majority of the respondents see changes in operating and management philosophies by businesses in their country. However, many commented that this change was still primarily associated with economics or in business sectors that would gain an advantage. Most consider this to be a slow change. Business philosophies are changing as businesses are beginning to consider how to measure and manage environmental issues. Some commented that until proactive management of environmental issues is ingrained in business philosophies and environmental performance is seen as an opportunity rather than a business threat, few companies will move beyond compliance. Clearly, many of the respondents view business attitudes toward the environment with cynicism and feel that industries will improve their environmental performance only in response to legislation and public pressure.
Technological Advances are Improving the Environmental Impact of Products and Processes Most respondents acknowledged that some environmental improvements in products and processes are occurring in their countries based on advances in technology. In general, many felt that technology provides the means to address environmental problems in a way that businesses can make a profit. Yet, respondents recognize that the full potential has not been realized and more is needed to transform markets which encourage "dirty" operations, especially in developing countries. Some suggest that this theme may be more important in the future as the use of clean technologies gains widespread adoption. Yet, others feel that reliance on technology postpones the need to change behavior or to develop new forms of self-governance toward the environment. Several felt that the importance of new technologies in addressing environmental problems is less than the public relations departments of companies would suggest. One European respondent stated that some technological advances are good for the environmental, whereas other advances are bad; the specific example given was the controversy over genetically engineered foods with their unforeseen drawbacks.
Expanding Awareness of the Changing Environment In general, awareness is recognized as an effective tool and driver for protecting the environment. Even so, many commented that awareness appears to be leveling off or declining in some regions. Some stated that other problems (i.e., economic, social, etc.) are more important than environment in some locations today. Others mentioned that while awareness is increasing, it is not bringing changes in consumers’ behavior. Awareness must be tied to a fundamental concern of the consumer to generate real action at a personal level. In other words, awareness is still at the "them" level, not the "me" level for both individuals and organizations. Some see that "most organizations are waiting for others to take initiative in this area rather than taking a leadership role." Education's Increasing Role in the Environmental Movement Environmental education has been integrated into all levels of education for many years, at least in the United States. However, many say that environmental education has a lot of room for improvement and, at present, is relatively ineffective in some regions. Some suggest that it is just for "greenies," while others say that we need to ensure that environmental literacy is built into all types of education especially business, engineering, and occupational training. Only then will environmental education yield long-term benefits.
Concern is Growing as to the Value and Viability of Alternative Sources of Energy In general, alternative energy sources are viewed as a long-term goal because of the current easy availability and lower cost of fossil fuels in many regions. Possible alternative sources suggested include solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal. Some suggest that it is all about energy prices and the economic situation. In areas where the environment or the remoteness of communities promotes the development of alternative energy technologies, progress is greater. A major constraint is the ability to fund the large capital investments required to support the infrastructures necessary for alternative energy sources.
Growing Need for Global Environmental Collaboration In general, respondents agree that collaboration is necessary to handle pervasive environmental problems. Individual countries recognize that they could benefit greatly from sharing environmental technology through global collaboration. Some consider collaboration critical because unitary action will have little effect on a global scale. However, some see no real action. One respondent recognized that some countries do not want others telling them what they must do for the global environment. Others are concerned that efforts of specific groups, such as industries or less developed countries, will impede collaboration on global environmental concerns.
Increasing Levels of Consumption Most respondents recognize that increasing consumption is an environmental concern that does not necessarily apply to their country because of economic reasons (i.e., under developed, economic down turns, etc.). Many others commented that consumption is high and rising. Yet, some thought that it has peaked in their country and that people are reducing their consumption. For a minority, consumption linked with environmental awareness has led to shifts towards more environmentally friendly lifestyles. Others see that increases in material consumption eat up most of the efficiency gains. One example of this is the tendency to shorten the useful life of a product to stimulate recurring demand for the product.
Change in Emphasis on Planning for Urban and Rural Land Use Most respondents agree that this is an important issue that needs more attention. Some said that towns are "greening" and farmers are becoming paid "Environmental Managers". Others say that both positive (i.e., nature preservation along rivers) and negative (i.e., infrastructure) development occurs. Some reported that the emphasis on change in this area is currently not happening in their country. For some, they have had a strong emphasis on urban and rural planning for some time. The increasing political and financial clout of the public and non-profit organizations appear to be having an importance influence on planning and how land is used for governments and developers. For example, the Sierra Club in the United States has adopted the reduction in urban sprawl as one of its focus areas. On the other hand, some feel that the subsidies given to agriculture and resource extraction industries result in continued environmental degradation. Still others see this theme as being tied to an issue of increasing personal wealth. This leads to an increasing number of people with enough money to have two homes, one urban and one rural; in turn, this leads to an ever-growing encroachment on the green belt.
Synopsis of Top Themes of Importance In summary, GIN Survey 2 respondents find a wide variety of forces of environmental change in the future are of major importance to their countries. These forces cover mobility, business cooperation, technology, education/awareness, energy, politics, economics, and human settlement. Among the themes for the top 12 forces of change are all three mobility themes: Increasing Mobility, Improving Vehicle Environmental Performance, and Shifts to Alternative Transportation. From a global perspective, we interpret this to mean that mobility is viewed as a key force that will change the environment in the future.
A unique perspective can be gained by examining how the background of respondents affects the ranking of importance and attention of individual themes. Survey 2 respondents were tenured professionals affiliated with one of four groups: Academia (49%), Government (17%), Industry (23.4%), or Non-Government Organizations (NGOs, 10.6%). Identifying the themes of major importance (mean score greater than or equal to 4.00) by affiliation revealed similarities and differences, depending on the group. Table 4 lists these themes of major-to-critical importance, as ranked by each affiliate. Only two themes were rated of major-to-critical importance for all four affiliates: (1) Growing need for global environmental collaboration and (2) Changing business operating and management philosophies. This suggests that the need for collaboration and for changes in business philosophies to promote a sustainable future is recognized as important by all sectors. In addition, nine themes were rated of major-to-importance by three of the four groups. Several of these themes cover the broad range of transportation and transportation-related issues: Alternative Energy Sources, Urban Planning/Land Use, Increasing Mobility, Alternative Transportation, and Global Warming. Five themes were rated of major-to-importance to one affiliate. Industrial affiliates rated the theme of growing consumer interest in environmental products and processes very high. This may indicate that business sees an increasing demand for green products in their marketing research. Government affiliates felt that the expanding influence of NGOs and the loss of bio-diversity from diminished natural resources were two very important themes. NGOs, however, did not rate their expanding influence within the cut-off range of major-to-critical importance; presumably, NGOs already believe they play a defining role in environmental issues. On the other hand, they may perceive that their role is not expanding sufficiently to rate a higher level of importance in their own country. Government respondents also were the only ones to rate New Health Risks and New World View as very important. At least in the United States, it is the government that is responsible for regulating new chemicals and determining health-based standards for those materials. This may explain why the theme of New Health Risks rated high by the government respondents. Oddly enough, only the NGOs saw the changing of fossil fuel prices as one of major importance. Since the popular conception is that increasing fossil fuel prices would lead to a shift away from private transportation toward mass transit, it is surprising that respondents from government did not also rate this theme higher. Results for the mobility themes are displayed in Fig. 3. In general, respondents from all four affiliations rated these themes as very important to changing the environment in their countries. Yet, there is some diversity in the level of importance of these themes, particularly with respect to vehicular performance as it impacts the environment. It is interesting to note government and NGO affiliates rank this theme lower than those affiliated with academia and industry. We interpret this to mean that survey respondents affiliated with industry feel political and public pressure to improve the environmental performance of their products and processes. Table 4. Professional Affiliation Rated Themes of Major-to-Critical Importance
Figure 3. Importance ratings by each affiliation for the three mobility themes. Improving vehicle environmental performance shows the most dispersion of ratings among the affiliates, while increasing mobility and the resultant environmental degradation shows the least. NGOs differ from the other affiliates who rated shifts to alternative forms of transportation of higher importance.
Differences Between Fully and Less Developed Countries
The issues identified by this project give us a greater understanding of the differences in environmental issues and perceived solutions in various countries. As mentioned previously, countries were placed into one of two economic groups, Developed or Less Developed, based on the work of Coates, Hines, and Mahaffi (1996). The importance vs. attention matrix for the 36 forces of environmental change themes for both groups were examined and found to be relatively similar. The matrices for each are shown in Figure 4 (developed countries) and Figure 5 (less developed countries). One difference between the patterns for these two groups is that they vary by the relative amount of attention many of the 36 themes are perceived to be getting in their countries. That is, respondents from less developed countries tended to report less attention for many of the themes envisioning our global environment in the future than those from developed countries. This seems to imply that other matters override the importance of the environment for gaining the attention of less developed countries. Furthermore, the theme of a growing concern for water supply and air quality stood out from the other themes as the theme of highest-rated importance for less developed countries. In contrast, improving vehicle environmental performance and shifts to alternative forms of transportation as well increasing levels of consumption were the highest importance rated themes from developed countries. Perhaps this reflects a focus of individuals in the less developed countries on environmental themes that are more relevant to their immediate lives; e.g., water and air quality. More abstract themes that have a secondary relationship to the environment (e.g., alternative forms of transportation) become more important in developed countries as economic status and leisure time rise.
Figure 4. Forces of Environmental Change Theme Importance-Attention Matrix based on responses from developed countries only.
Figure 5. Forces of Change Themes Importance-Attention Matrix based on responses from less developed countries. Table 5. Significantly Different Themes for Less and Fully Developed Countries
Other differences were revealed by comparing the average importance of each of the 36 themes for respondents in less developed countries to those from fully developed countries. Mean ratings of importance for these two groups differed significantly for 10 of the 36 themes as shown in Table 5. Respondents from less developed countries rated seven themes significantly higher in importance than those from developed countries did. On the other hand, respondents from developed countries rated three themes significantly higher on importance than those from less developed countries. The two of these seven themes that differed the most on importance ratings for respondents from less developed countries compared to those from developed countries are: (1) Growing Concerns for Water and Air Quality and (2) Growing Urban Population and Sprawl. As seen in Figure 6, concern for water and air quality as well as growing urban population and sprawl are rated as of major importance to less developed countries while they were seen as of intermediate to almost minor importance to developed countries. We interpret this to mean that less developed countries are recognizing the need address these issues because they will impact the future of their countries, while the developed countries already have been dealing with these issues or have the economic means to expand into rural areas to avoid some of these problems. Furthermore, the areas with the greatest rates of population increases are in the less developed countries such as Latin and South America, Africa, and Asia. Based on the ratings, the two political themes (political interest in environmental issues and improved environmental legislation) in Figure 6 are seen as of major importance to less developed countries while of relatively minor importance to developed countries. We interpret this to mean that less developed countries are recognizing that political changes are the needed in order to have a sustainable future. Government corruption and/or lack of political interest in the environment are a major concern in less developed countries. On the other hand, this is a relatively minor concern for developed countries. Respondents from less developed countries also recognize that many improvements are needed for environmental legislation and regulation in their countries.
Figure 6. Seven forces of environmental change themes with significantly higher importance ratings for respondents from less developed countries than those from developed countries. The largest differences between importance ratings by the developed countries compared to the less developed countries are illustrated in Figure 7. Those from developed countries view the belief that an accelerated rate of global warming is occurring as of major importance to their countries while those from less developed countries view this belief as of relatively minor importance. The issue of global warming/climate change is a complicated one. While emissions from the developed world currently make up about 75% of the global emissions of greenhouse gases, the contribution from developing countries is expected to rise to about 50% by 2035, based on economic growth rates around the world. (See Climate Change, 1995) Signatories to the Kyoto Protocol on Greenhouse Gases listed target reductions for only the developed countries and agreed that future protocols would address emissions from developing countries. Thus, this theme has more immediate implications to developed countries. Again, too, the developed countries have more resources and an informed public to address global issues such as climate change. A balance between the use of public and private transportation is emerging. Those from developed countries recognize that shifts to alternative forms of transportation are more important in their countries than in less developed countries. Globally there is an increase in the development and social acceptance of mass rapid transit. We interpret this to mean that developed countries perceive a need to shift from private to alternative forms transportation to improve the environment. Finally, respondents from developed countries viewed increasing levels of consumption as more important to their countries than those from less developed countries. We interpret this to mean that in these countries increasing consumption is leading to increased awareness and education with improved science and technology to counter the tendency to overexploit resources and the environment.
Figure 7. Three forces of change themes with significantly higher importance ratings for respondents from developed countries than for those from less developed countries.
Regional differences provide additional insights into the reasons for selection of the importance of the 12 most-important themes by the entire group of survey respondents. Respondents from eight regions of the global participated in the GIN Survey 2. However, the number of participants varied by region, with the most respondents being from Western Europe and North America. Therefore, the strength of the differences presented here should be viewed with this caveat in mind. In addition, two regions did not have participation from all countries associated with the region. For the sake of clarity in the following discussion will refer to the region as Middle East and as Eastern Europe. Table 1 provides complete information regarding the countries responding from each region. Several themes of interest are discussed below.
Improving the Environmental Performance of Vehicles Regional differences are seen in the importance/attention ratings given to the theme of improving the environmental performance of vehicles. The majority of responses indicate that improving vehicle performance is expected to improve the environment in their region. Responses from the Middle East region as well as the Latin America & Caribbean region indicated that improving the environmental performance of vehicles is viewed as extremely important but that it only receives slight attention in these two regions. Responses from European regions and North America suggest that although improving vehicle performance is rated as important, not nearly enough attention is being paid to it in these regions. Similarly, those from Asia & the Pacific indicate that it doesn't receive enough attention but rated it as slightly less important than in these regions. At the extreme, respondents from sub-Saharan Africa reported that improving vehicle performance was not important in their countries. Perhaps, other forces of environmental change are believed to have more impact on the environment in this region than improving vehicular environmental performance. It should also be recognized that this region has fewer vehicles per capita and a lower income per capita.
Figure 9. The Forces of Environmental Change Importance-Attention Matrix for eight global regions on shifts to alternative forms of transportation.
Shifts to Alternative Forms of Transportation Regions also differed on the importance and attention given to shifts to alternative forms of transportation. Responses from the Middle East region and the Latin America & Caribbean region indicate that shifting to alterna | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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